Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 798 (S11W48) produced a
single small c-class x-ray flare at 21/1019 UTC. The region remains
the largest on the disk and has become more complex since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 798 appears capable of an isolated M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. ACE real time
solar wind data suggests the onset of a coronal hole high speed
stream at about 21/1530 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods under
the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 099 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 012/015-012/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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