Viewing archive of Monday, 15 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 15 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 797
(S13E03) underwent some decay in sunspot area while strengthening
magnetically. Gamma characteristics have become visible in the
southern portion of the region. Region 798 (S08E39) remains a
simple alpha group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Region 798 has the potential to produce C-class
flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to minor storm levels.
Isolated major storming may be possible on 16 and 17 August due to a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. A decrease to
predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on 18 August as the
coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 076 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 016/025-016/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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