Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 797 (S13E16) continues to show steady growth in sunspot area although flare production was limited to minor B-class activity. Region 798 (S05E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The ACE spacecraft indicated periods of southward Bz early in the period which coincide with the observed active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active conditions may be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Isolated periods of minor to major storming are possible on 17 August in association with the expected maximum solar wind speeds from the coronal hole .
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 075
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  014/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  006/010-012/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%45%
Minor storm05%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

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