Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 August 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 10 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The minor storm conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz (varied between -4 to -9 nT) and a slight increase in solar wind speed (around 468 km/s). This activity appears to be associated with a transient flow in the solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 076
  Predicted    11 Aug-13 Aug  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  015/028
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/010-008/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%30%
Minor storm 10%10%15%
Major-severe storm 05%01%05%

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