Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
was observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The minor
storm conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz (varied
between -4 to -9 nT) and a slight increase in solar wind speed
(around 468 km/s). This activity appears to be associated with a
transient flow in the solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 076 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 015/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/010-008/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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