Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 07 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 792 (N10W54) produced a
long duration C1.4 flare at 07/1249 UTC. Region 794 (S13W23) and
Region 795 (N12W13) have remained stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with minor
storm conditions observed at high latitudes between 07/0300 - 0600
UTC. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s,
but Bt has decreased to about 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels over the next three
days (08 August - 10 August).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 092 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 025/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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