Viewing archive of Friday, 5 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 05 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 792 (N11W28) produced a
long duration C2.8 flare at 05/0805 UTC with an associated partial
halo CME. Region 794 (S13E04) continues to show good flare
potential.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity from Region 792 or 794.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Today's CME may cause
active conditions towards the end of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 099 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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