Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
794 (S11E19) produced a C8/Sf event at 04/0559Z, which was the
largest flare of the period. A resulting CME was seen on LASCO C2
imagery which does not appear to be Earth directed. This region
continues to show steady growth in sunspot area. Region 792
(N11W14) produced a single C-class flare today and underwent
continued decay in magnetic complexity. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 792 and 794 are capable of
producing isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred at high latitudes between
04/0600Z and 0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 106 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/012-007/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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