Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 03 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 794 (S11E34) produced the largest flare of the period, an M3/1n event that occurred at 03/0506Z. A Tenflare (120 sfu) and a Type II spectral radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 725 km/sec accompanied the flare. LASCO imagery depicted a CME that does not appear to have an Earth directed component. This region continues to show steady growth in magnetic development and sunspot count. Showing steady decay, Region 792 (N11W01) was limited to B and C-class flare activity today. The delta structure seen yesterday in the northern portion of the sunspot cluster is no longer visible although gamma structures are apparent in both polarities. Region 796 (S07E05) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 792 and 794 are capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 04 August due to the potential for transient activity associated with the CME events seen on 01 and 02 August.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Aug 109
  Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        03 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  012/015-005/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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