Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 26 2206 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E09) has produced several B-class flares during the last 24 hours. Three backside CME's were observed on LASCO imagery during the period. None appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A chance for an isolated C-class event is possible from Region 791.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one period of unsettled conditions at middle latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible. These effects are possible as a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jul 087
  Predicted    27 Jul-29 Jul  090/100/105
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  008/010-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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