Viewing archive of Monday, 25 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 25 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E22) continues to be the only numbered spotted region on the visible solar disk. Even though this group has been relatively quiet it does show slight development in both area and spot count. The LASCO imagery observed two full halo CME's. The first was at 24/2230 UTC and the second at 25/1106 UTC. Both of these were backside events and not Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. Region 791 could produce B-class flares with a chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jul 084
  Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul  085/090/100
  90 Day Mean        25 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  005/005-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

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