Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 24 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E36)
remains the only numbered spot group on the solar disk. This region
has shown a slight growth in area and maintains a simple beta
magnetic configuration. Several CME's were observed by LASCO
imagery over the past 24 hours. Analysis show these were backside
events and not Earth directed. One appears to be a halo CME first
observed by C2 imagery at 24/1354 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 791.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 080 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 005/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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