Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was
observed in LASCO imagery at approximately 21/0354 UTC. This event
was determined to be backsided. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Mid
and high lattitudes experienced minor storming from 0000 to 0600
UTC, with high lattitudes experiencing further minor storming from
0900 to 1200 UTC. The storm conditions are the result of a coronal
hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed has been at about 550 km/s
thoughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 22 July as the coronal hole
high speed stream wanes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on 23 and 24 July.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 073 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 014/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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