Viewing archive of Monday, 18 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The visible disk was spotless today. Old Region 790 (S10 L=013) produced low level B-class flares very early in the period from beyond the solar west limb. The disk and limbs were fairly quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The elevated conditions may have resulted from the X1 flare and associated full halo CME that occurred on 14 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z, and ended at 18/1015Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels on 19 July. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective on 20 July with active to minor storming conditions anticipated and isolated major storming possible. A decrease to predominantly unsettled to active levels can be expected on 21 July..
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton20%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jul 072
  Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul  070/075/075
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  015/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  022/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  008/015-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%25%
Minor storm05%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm15%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%20%05%

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