Viewing archive of Monday, 18 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 18 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
visible disk was spotless today. Old Region 790 (S10 L=013)
produced low level B-class flares very early in the period from
beyond the solar west limb. The disk and limbs were fairly
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
The elevated conditions may have resulted from the X1 flare and
associated full halo CME that occurred on 14 July. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134
pfu at 15/0345Z, and ended at 18/1015Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels
on 19 July. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected
to become geoeffective on 20 July with active to minor storming
conditions anticipated and isolated major storming possible. A
decrease to predominantly unsettled to active levels can be expected
on 21 July..
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 072 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 070/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 015/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 022/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/015-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
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