Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels this period. Region 786 (N12W97) continues to be very active as it rotates around the west limb. Two major events occurred from this region today. The first was an M9 x-ray event with a 220 sfu Tenflare at 14/0725Z. A CME was observed on LASCO imagery in association with this event. A considerably more powerful, long duration X1 proton flare occurred at 14/1055Z. Strong radio emissions accompanied this flare including a 3400 sfu Tenflare, a 120,000 sfu burst at 610 MHz, and a Type IV radio sweep. A very bright and fast (approximately 1430 km/s) halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery. The remainder of the solar disk and limb was quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, although there is still a chance for another major flare from Region 786 as it rotates around the west limb. Low to very low conditions are expected on 16 and 17 July.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s, but is declining. The most disturbed geomagnetic periods occurred between 14/0100 - 1300Z when the IMF Bz was predominantly southward. A slow, gradual rise in the greater than 10 MeV protons began soon after yesterday's M5 event. The 10 pfu alert threshold was finally reached at 14/0245Z. A second, larger influx of high energy protons followed today's X1 flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux were still slowly increasing at issue time, and the peak flux so far is 53 pfu at 14/1905Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next three days. Occasional major storm periods are possible at high latitudes. At least three CMEs from the M1, M5, and X1 events on 12, 13, and 14 July respectively, are expected to generate the storm periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through 15 July. Assuming no new injection of particles, this event will likely end by 16 July.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M50%20%10%
Class X10%01%01%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 090
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  085/080/080
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  020/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  025/025-025/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm35%35%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

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