Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 13 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 786 (N11W84) continues its very active ways as it rotates around the west limb. The region was responsible for all flare activity this period, which included numerous C-class x-ray flares and five M-class events. The largest and most impressive of these events was the long duration M5 flare at 13/1449Z. Moderate to strong centimetric radio bursts accompanied this event including a 2000 sfu Tenflare. A bright, fast, predominantly westward directed CME (1360 km/s) was also observed. A long duration M1 x-ray event and Tenflare (250 sfu) occurred at 13/0316Z. A CME was also observed on LASCO imagery following this event. A relatively impulsive M3 flare occurred at 13/1219Z. Region 786 is a moderate size sunspot group with a strong delta configuration. New Region 790 (S10W35) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels for one more day as Region 786 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to return to low to very low levels on 15 and 16 July.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of new CME material at the ACE spacecraft early this period. Extended periods of southward IMF Bz and solar wind speeds exceeding 600 km/s resulted in active to minor storm conditions at all latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV protons are slowly rising following today's M5 flare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. The CMEs observed yesterday and today are expected to produce active to minor storm levels on 15 and 16 July. Isolated major storm periods are possible at high latitudes. The greater than 10 Mev protons will likely pass the 10 pfu alert threshold early on 14 July.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M50%20%10%
Class X10%01%01%
Proton20%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 092
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  090/085/080
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  017/048
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  015/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%50%50%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

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