Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 10 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N10W43)
produced an M2 flare at 09/2206 UTC with an associated full halo CME
observed in LASCO imagery. Region 783 (S03W88) produced a C9 flare
at 10/1516 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (869 km/s).
No LASCO imagery of this event was available at the time of issue.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. A
transient shock from the CME activity on 07 July was observed by ACE
at approximately 10/0300 UTC. Following the shock, there was a
period of sustained southward Bz resulting in major storming in the
period from 1200 to 1500 UTC. There was a proton enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV protons associated with the M2.8 flare on 09
July; however, proton levels remained under event thresholds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated periods
of major storm conditions for 11 July due to the arrival of a
transient shock from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09
July. Predominantly active conditions are expected on 12 July,
declining to mostly unsettled on 13 July.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 102 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 028/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 025/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 10% |
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