Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 09 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C2 flare at 1027 UTC from Region 786 (N11W31). Region 789 (N18E15) produced a C1 flare at 2045 UTC. Region 783 (S03W75) grew in size but has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Active conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz. At approximately 0500 UTC, Bz turned south and varied between -5 and -10 nT. At the time of issue, Bz remains south.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions for 10 July due to the effects of CME activity observed on 7 July. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 11 and 12 July.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M50%50%40%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 107
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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