Viewing archive of Friday, 8 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 08 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N12W17) produced a long duration C1.6 event at 08/1618 UTC. There was also a reported Type IV radio sweep which may be associated with this flare. The event was optically correlated with the GOES solar x-ray imager data. Region 786 continues to be the largest group on the disk and exhibits a magnetic delta configuration. A CME is currently observed in the LASCO imagery at 08/1922 UTC. Limited data at this time does not allow for a complete analysis of the source for this activity. The main trajectory seems to be off the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 remains a likely source for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions for 09-10 July. The increased levels of activity are expected due to effects from the observed CME's between 05-07 July, and the possible influence from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 11 July.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jul 110
  Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul  110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        08 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jul  006/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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