Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 03 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C4/Sf at 0456 UTC from Region 787 (S10W48). Region 787 is a small, simple, D-type group. Two additional, low level C-class events were produced during the day; both of these were from Region 782 (S17W45) which appears to be decaying slowly. Region 783 (S03E04) continued to grow and is currently the largest group on the disk, but did not produce any flares. The region has developed significant spots with penumbra between the leader and trailer parts of the group and appears to have a beta-gamma magnetic class. Region 786 ( N12E48) is the second largest group on the disk and also appears to have some magnetic complexity, but only managed to produce a B-flare. Region 785 (S18W20), which produced several C-flares yesterday, was quiet and decaying during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to predominantly low for the next three days (04-06 July) but there is a chance for an isolated M-class flare, with Region 783 or Region 786 the most likely sources.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially active but has been quiet to unsettled since 03/0600 UTC. The high speed stream continues to weaken as velocities steadily decreased today; values at forecast issue time were around 480-500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some isolated active periods for the first day (04 July). Conditions should decline to predominantly quiet for the second and third days (05-06 July).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jul 130
  Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        03 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jul  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  010/015-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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