Viewing archive of Friday, 1 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 01 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C5 at 0502 UTC from newly numbered Region 786 (N13E76). The event was associated with a type II radio sweep and a small, narrow CME off the east limb. There was one additional C-flare today; a C1 at 1256 UTC from Region 782 (S17W18). Region 782 and 783 (S03E33) both showed noteworthy growth during the past 24 hours. New Region 787 (S09W22) emerged on the disk during the day as a small B-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the next three days (02-04 July), but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active, but there was a minor storm period from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole, beginning at about 1200 UTC. Solar wind speed at the end of the analysis period had reached about 500 km/s and was steadily increasing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the first day (02 July), with a chance for isolated minor storm periods. Conditions should decline to unsettled to active for the second day (03 July), and should be predominantly unsettled for the third day (04 July).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jul 115
  Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        01 Jul 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  017/020-010/018-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

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