Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 28 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed in
LASCO imagery at 28/1742 UTC. This event was determined to be
back-sided.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 01 July due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 080 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 080/085/090 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 008/012-008/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
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