Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 26 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare was observed late in the period from a source area near N15 on the east solar limb. The flare occurred at 26/2035Z. Several B-class flares during the period were also attributed to this yet visible region in H-alpha. Another full halo CME was observed today on SOHO/LASCO imagery and it appears to be back-sided. The visible disk is currently spotless. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. An active source region that is just beyond the northeast limb appears to have the capability of producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. Solar winds speeds have dropped to 500 km/sec and it appears the weak coronal hole is waning. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 28 June due to the CME activity seen yesterday that was related to disappearing solar filaments.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 079
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  080/085/085
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  010/010-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

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