Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 25 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. A C1 x-ray flare occurred in Region 780 (S07W43) at 25/0346Z. This region continues to decay as white light depicts a two spot AXX alpha group. There were several disappearing filaments reported today near the time SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a full halo CME. Much of CME signature is believed to be back-sided, although there is some evidence that the filament activity contributed to the overall CME signature leaving the potential for an Earth directed component. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Showing weak geoeffective consequences, the recurrent high speed coronal hole stream has pushed the solar winds speeds to over 600 km/sec. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly north throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 26 June due to the high speed stream and again on 28 June due to the potential effects from the front-sided component of the CME activity seen today.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jun 077
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  007/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  004/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  010/015-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%35%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

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