Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 22 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S08W01) produced a
C1.8/Sf flare at 1633 UTC. Region 779 (S19W82) is in decay and is
rotating around the west limb quietly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 779 and 780 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 23 June. Unsettled to active levels are
expected on 24 and 25 June, with a chance for isolated minor
storming as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 080 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 005/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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