Viewing archive of Monday, 20 June 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-flare from Region 779 (S17W58).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M 10%10%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 086
  Predicted    21 Jun-23 Jun  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  006/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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