Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S08E52) produced several low C-class flares. Occasional surging and numerous brightness fluctuations were noted in this D-type group throughout the period. A C1 flare was also observed in Region 779 (S18W32). Region 779 is a moderate size E-type group in slow growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Both Regions 779 and 780 are capable of C-class activity with a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at near 500 km/s, but is in slow decline. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated, but are slowly returning to background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with the chance for isolated minor storm periods. Transient flow from the M4 flare and CME on 16 June may create occasional storm periods on 19 June. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 20 and 21 June.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 090
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  015/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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