Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 June 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 16 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 775 (N10W86) produced an M4.0 flare at 16/2022 UTC with associated Type II (989 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A 170 sfu Tenflare and a CME were also associated with this event. Region 775 also produced a long duration C1.7 flare at 16/0905 UTC. Region 779 (S17W05) continues to show growth, but is developing more slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for another M-class flare from Region 775 as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Transient material associated with the CME activity on 14 June impacted the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/0830 UTC. A short-lived period of southward IMF Bz to near -16 nT resulted in a major storm from 0900 to 1200 UTC. A greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV proton enhancement began following today's M4 flare. At the time of issue, the protons were slowly rising, but had not yet reached event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active with isolated minor storming on 17 June due to the CME activity on 14 June. Conditions should decrease to predominantly unsettled on 18 June, with quiet to unsettled conditions expected on 19 June. The greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV protons are expected to exceed event thresholds early in the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton90%20%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 098
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  014/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  018/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  018/025-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

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