Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 June 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 776 (S05W64) produced a C2.2 flare at 1843 UTC. Region 775 (N09W74) continues to show fair flare potential but will rotate around the west limb on 16 June. Region 776 will rotate off on 17 June. Two new regions were numbered today. Newly numbered Region 778 (N07W38) developed into a Cro beta group. Newly numbered Region 779 (S17E08) emerged and developed rapidly into a Dai beta spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz was sustained southward between -5 and -10 nT from 15/0500 to 15/1200 UTC. This resulted in minor storm levels between 15/0600 and 15/0900 UTC. Conditions have been at unsettled to active levels since 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on 16 June as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor to major storming is possible on 17 June due to the effects of CME activity associated with the C4 and C7 flares on 14 June. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active on 18 June
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 095
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  012/020-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm10%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%25%
Minor storm25%30%15%
Major-severe storm10%15%05%

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