Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 11 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 775 (N10W19) or 776 (S06W08).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 12 and 13 June due to the effects of a faint partial halo CME that occurred on 08 June. On 14 June, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jun 108
  Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        11 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  008/010-008/010-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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