Viewing archive of Friday, 10 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 10 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 772 (S18W84)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 x-ray event that
occurred at 10/0310Z. Region 775 (N08W05) underwent a slight decay
in penumbral coverage today. The southern appendage off the
dominant spot in the cluster continues to exhibit delta
characteristics. No flares were observed from this region during the
period. Region 776 (S06E07) also appeared to show a slight decay
over the interval although the region continues to depict moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 777 (N05E57) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 775 and 776 are both capable of producing an
isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Beginning late on 11 June, isolated active conditions may occur due
to the arrival of the very faint partial halo CME that occurred on 8
June.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 114 Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 110/100/100 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 003/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 003/007-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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