Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 04 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 772 (S17W06) has produced several C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The largest was a C6/Sn at 03/2355 UTC with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 774 (N05W06) and 775 (N12E75). Region 775 is possibly the return of old Region 759 which produced several C-class and some M-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 772.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. The solar wind features indicate the increased geomagnetic activity is associated with the possible onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions possible. The increased levels of activity are expected due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed stream, the influence of the M1 CME on 03 June, and the activity from today's event at 23/2355 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 097
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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