Viewing archive of Monday, 30 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 30 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 771 (N24W33) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm conditions. Heightened activity was due to the resulting effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream and CME activity from 26 May. Though the solar wind speed at ACE was relatively low, Bz remained steadily south at approximately 15 nT for several hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on 31 May. Conditions are expected to abate until a possible weak coronal hole high speed stream will move into geoeffective position on 02 May.
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 May 095
  Predicted   31 May-02 Jun  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        30 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  016/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 May  025/060
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  012/018-008/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

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