Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 29 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.7 flare occurred at
28/2217 UTC which was probably produced by Region 769 (S08E59);
however, the full extent of this region is hard to determine due to
its proximity to the east limb. Region 767 (S09W31) has decayed to
200 millionths in area. New Region 770 (N12E00) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region
767.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Heightened activity was
due to the arrival of the full halo CME observed on 26 May combined
with a coronal hole high speed stream. A shock was observed at ACE
at approximately 29/0900 UTC and a sudden impulse of 30 nT was
observed at 29/0953 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE increased to 450
km/s during the initial shock and is now between 500 km/s and 550
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions possible on 30 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 31 May and 01 June.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 093 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 29 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 008/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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