Viewing archive of Friday, 27 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 27 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 767 (S08W02) produced an M1/2f and associated tenflare at 27/1230 UTC. This region also produced a C8 flare at 26/2139 UTC. A type IV radio sweep was associated with this C8 event and a faint CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 767 continues to develop in both size and magnetic complexity, and is now nearing 400 millionths of white light area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 767 has the potential for further M-class activity. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), a large and moderately complex region during its last rotation, is due to rotate onto the visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storming. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 28 May. The most disturbed periods will likely occur on 29 and 30 May as the recent CMEs from Region 767 are expected to impact the geomagnetic field.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M20%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 096
  Predicted   28 May-30 May  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        27 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  015/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%25%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%40%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

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