Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 26 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A long duration B7.5
flare occurred at 26/1420 UTC from Region 767 (S08E12). A filament
eruption was associated with this event, followed by a full halo CME
on LASCO imagery. The bulk of the CME, first seen at 26/1506 UTC,
was directed to the south west. The plane of sky speed of the
ejecta was approximately 575 km/s. At the time of issue, a C8 flare
was in progress in this region. New sunspot development between the
leading and trailing spots have increased the size and complexity of
this active region. New Region 768 (S08W48) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 767 has the potential for C-class activity with a small
chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), which
produced three M-flares on its last rotation, is expected to rotate
onto the visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods on
27 and 28 May due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The full halo CME from 26 May is expected to cause active
to minor storm conditions on 29 May.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 090 Predicted 27 May-29 May 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 26 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 010/010-015/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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