Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 26 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A long duration B7.5 flare occurred at 26/1420 UTC from Region 767 (S08E12). A filament eruption was associated with this event, followed by a full halo CME on LASCO imagery. The bulk of the CME, first seen at 26/1506 UTC, was directed to the south west. The plane of sky speed of the ejecta was approximately 575 km/s. At the time of issue, a C8 flare was in progress in this region. New sunspot development between the leading and trailing spots have increased the size and complexity of this active region. New Region 768 (S08W48) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 767 has the potential for C-class activity with a small chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), which produced three M-flares on its last rotation, is expected to rotate onto the visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods on 27 and 28 May due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream. The full halo CME from 26 May is expected to cause active to minor storm conditions on 29 May.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 090
  Predicted   27 May-29 May  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        26 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  010/010-015/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%

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