Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 25 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Occasional
B-class flares were observed in Regions 766 (N14E23) and 767
(S07E26). These two active regions are the only sunspot groups on
the visible disk, and exhibited little change this period. A large
CME off the east limb was observed on LASCO imagery during the
latter half of 24 May. The likely source of this CME was backsided.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 767.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near
360 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods on 26 May.
Occasional active periods are expected on 27 and 28 May as a coronal
hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 084 Predicted 26 May-28 May 085/085/095 90 Day Mean 25 May 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 005/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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