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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 20 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 759 (N12W88) is transiting the solar west limb and quiescent throughout the period. Region 765 (N09E51) was responsible for several low level B-class flares today. Magnetically, this region remains simply structured. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storming levels today. The most likely source for the major storming conditions was the full halo CME seen early on 17 May. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 084
  Predicted   21 May-23 May  080/085/090
  90 Day Mean        20 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  006/010-006/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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