Viewing archive of Friday, 20 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 20 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 759
(N12W88) is transiting the solar west limb and quiescent throughout
the period. Region 765 (N09E51) was responsible for several low
level B-class flares today. Magnetically, this region remains
simply structured. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storming levels
today. The most likely source for the major storming conditions was
the full halo CME seen early on 17 May. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be
at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 084 Predicted 21 May-23 May 080/085/090 90 Day Mean 20 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 006/010-006/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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