Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 763 (S16W24) was responsible for three low level C-flares. This region continues to decay. A CME off the SW limb was observed today on LASCO imagery at 18/0206 UTC, but does not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an isolated M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has been variable between 450 km/s and 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 19 May as a faint full halo CME, from 17 May, may arrive late in the day. Unsettled conditions are expected on 20 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 21 May.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M 35%20%10%
Class X 05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 084
  Predicted    19 May-21 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        18 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  010/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  010/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  012/015-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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