Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 15 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several low level C-flares were produced by Regions 758 (S10 on the west limb) and 763 (S15E16). Region 759 (N11W20) has decayed slightly over the past 24 hours. A CME off the west limb with a speed of approximately 580 km/s was seen on LASCO imagery at 14/2122 UTC associated with a long duration C2.8 which occurred at 14/2058 UTC from Region 758. At the time of issue, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at 3.4 PFU as of 15/2135 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 759 is still capable of producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. The arrival of a CME from 13 May initiated the disturbance which caused severe storming conditions between 15/0600 UTC and 0900 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 200 km/s to 950 km/s. Solar wind speed has declined to approximately 750 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on 16 May. On 17 May, a possible glancing blow from the 14 May CME along with a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream are expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 18 May.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M40%35%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton40%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 103
  Predicted   16 May-18 May  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  075/100
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  020/040-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm15%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm25%05%01%

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