Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 May 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 15 0020 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 758 (S10E90) has now rotated off the visible limb, and Region 759 (N11W07) has continued to produce several C-class events. The greater than 10 MeV solar particle flux at the time of this report had reached a maximum of 338 PFU on 14 May at 1945Z, and remains high.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 759 continues to have a high potential for M-class activity, and slight chance for further proton-producing flare activity. The current energetic proton flux is expected to remain elevated through 16 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels from 15 through 16 May, with a slight chance of an isolated period of major storm levels. The flare from Region 759 on 13 May at 1657Z, produced a significant, Earth-directed, coronal mass ejection. The shock is expected to arrive late on the 15th, and remain geoeffective through the 16th.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M65%65%65%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 100
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        14 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  021/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  010/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  045/060-040/045-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm50%45%15%
Major-severe storm15%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm40%40%25%
Major-severe storm35%25%05%

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