Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. On 11 May, Region
758 (S08W61) produced an M1.6/Sf at 0733Z. Region 759 (N12E19)
produced both an M1.4/1N at 1740Z and a C9.9/2B at 0113Z. Both
regions produced several C-class events over the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate from 13 through 15 May. Regions 758 and 759 continue to
have a potential for M-class activity with a slight chance for a
major or proton-producing flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluence at geosynchronous orbits reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13 May, with periods
of active levels on the 15th. A coronal mass ejection which
originated from S10W66 on 11 May at 1946Z, is expected to generate a
shock arrival on the 15th.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 117 Predicted 13 May-15 May 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 12 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 013/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/008-010/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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