Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 10 2225 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 758 (S10W36)
produced an M1/Sf at 0523 UTC. The region has continued to develop
and has formed a delta configuration in the middle spots. The group
produced additional C-class events during the day. Region 759
(N12E50) also produced several C-class events and has some magnetic
complexity. New Region 762 (S08E18) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days with Region 758 and Region 759 as
the most likely sources for energetic events. There is a slight
chance for a major flare or proton producing flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 119 Predicted 11 May-13 May 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 010/012-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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