Viewing archive of Monday, 2 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 02 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 758 (S10E74)
produced a C2.2 flare at 02/0007 UTC. Region 756 (S08W23) continues
to decay; however, the region still exhibits a beta-delta magnetic
configuration. Two CME's were observed on LASCO imagery. The first
was a full halo at 02/0526 UTC and the second was off the west limb
at 02/1327 UTC. Both CME's are backside events and are not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 756.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE decreased from approximately 650 km/s to 500 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 112 Predicted 03 May-05 May 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 02 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 014/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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