Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 30 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 756 (S07E01) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 30/1824 UTC. Region 756 continues to increase in
area; however, this region has only managed to produced lower level
C-flares. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 756.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
storm period between 30/0000 UTC and 0300 UTC. Heightened activity
was due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 380
km/s to 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on 01 May. Conditions are expected to settled down to quiet to
unsettled levels with active periods possible for the remainder of
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 106 Predicted 01 May-03 May 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 020/040-018/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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