Viewing archive of Friday, 22 April 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 22 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new region rotating around the east limb at S05 may have been the source of a CME observed off the southeast limb at around 22/0630Z. The few sunspot groups on the visible disk are small and stable, and exhibited no significant changes or activity this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A new region rotating around the east limb at S05 may elevate activity levels slightly on 24 and 25 April.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods. A weak disturbance is expected on 22 and 23 April as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 077
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  080/085/085
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  015/020-010/020-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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