Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 April 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 19 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 755 (S12E49), which was responsible for three C-class flares on 17 April, continues to decay. A CME was observed on LASCO imagery at 19/1226 UTC directed to the northwest. The CME most likely occurred on the backside and is not expected to be geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 0600 UTC and 0900 UTC on 19 April. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active conditions on 20 and 21 April. On 22 April, there is a chance for increased active periods due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M 05%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 078
  Predicted    20 Apr-22 Apr  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  008/012-008/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm 10%10%15%
Major-severe storm 05%01%05%

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