Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 14 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
752 (N01E43) showed slight growth during the period and a weak gamma
magnetic structure is visible in the central sunspot cluster. This
region was limited to low level B-class flare production. Region
754 (S08E51) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 752 is complex enough to generate a
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated
levels are due to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 15 April as the geoeffective high
speed stream wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 085 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 018/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 010/012-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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