Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 April 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 752 (N01E43) showed slight growth during the period and a weak gamma magnetic structure is visible in the central sunspot cluster. This region was limited to low level B-class flare production. Region 754 (S08E51) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 752 is complex enough to generate a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated levels are due to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 15 April as the geoeffective high speed stream wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Apr 085
  Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        14 Apr 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  018/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  010/012-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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