Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 13 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. All of the regions on the disk were stable and quiet, and the GOES x-ray flux remained below B level for the entire interval. New Region 753 (N12W06) emerged as a small, C-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly active with a few minor storm periods. The enhanced activity is being driven by a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (14 April). The currently enhanced activity level is expected to diminish around midday on the 14th as the high speed stream moves out of geoeffective position. Mostly unsettled levels should predominate on 15 April, and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 16 April.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Apr 084
  Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        13 Apr 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  023/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Apr  020/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  015/020-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%10%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%15%10%

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