Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 April 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 10 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of occasional B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 751 (S07W84). However, SXI images indicate a small, bright active region on the east limb at N01 which was the source for a B8 event at 1814 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event during the next 3 days (11-13 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet until sometime late on 11 April when conditions are expected to increase to mostly active levels due to a coronal hole. Active conditions from the coronal hole are expected to continue for 12-13 April.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 088
  Predicted    11 Apr-13 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  002/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  010/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm 15%25%25%
Major-severe storm 10%20%20%

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