Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 10 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of occasional B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 751
(S07W84). However, SXI images indicate a small, bright active region
on the east limb at N01 which was the source for a B8 event at 1814
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event during
the next 3 days (11-13 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet until sometime late on 11 April when conditions
are expected to increase to mostly active levels due to a coronal
hole. Active conditions from the coronal hole are expected to
continue for 12-13 April.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 088 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 010/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
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