Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 09 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 751 (S07W74) produced several B-class flares during the period. This region has grown in both sunspot count and white light area coverage and is now a Dai beta spot group. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed two CME's today off the SW limb. The first was around 09/0826 UTC and the second was at 09/1350 UTC. Both appear to be from a backside event. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled for 10-12 April. Periods of active conditions are possible on 11-12 April due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 088
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  008/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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